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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 12, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Minnesota Wild 2

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL2120319324
MIN213015010238

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:43ATLEvander KaneAssists: Colby Armstrong, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:05MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Martin Havlat, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:29MINAndrew EbbettAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
  4. P1 19:46ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Pavel Kubina, Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:05ATLNiclas BergforsGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:11MINDerek Boogaard: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 6:23MINAntti Miettinen: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 10:52ATLJim Slater: Slashing2 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:24ATLEric Boulton: High sticking double minor4 min
  5. P1 18:08MINMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P1 19:22MINShane Hnidy: Holding2 min
  7. P2 5:14MINEric Belanger: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 6:50MINOwen Nolan: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 0:00MINAntti Miettinen: Interference2 min
  10. P3 18:00ATLEvander Kane: Interference2 min
  11. P3 18:24MINMartin Havlat: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Slater
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLMIN
24Shots on goal38
1.6Expected goals2.4
54Shot attempts61
37Faceoffs won35
7Power plays4
8Penalty minutes16
18Hits32
14Blocked shots16
4Giveaways7
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.4 xGATL 1.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #633 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.54 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).