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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 12, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Phoenix Coyotes 1, Colorado Avalanche 2

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.

COL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX010112011133
COL1160316225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:58COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Chris Stewart, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.66 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:24PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Shane Doan, Petr Prucha · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
  3. P3 15:27COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Brett Clark, Ryan Wilson · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 2:54PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 5:58PHXAdrian Aucoin: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 7:19PHXJim Vandermeer: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P1 12:05COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 12:05PHXJim Vandermeer: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 9:04COLMarek Svatos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P3 0:41COLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 4:41COLRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 7:21COLRyan Wilson: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 7:26PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 11:16COLBrandon Yip: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 11:20PHXMatthew Lombardi: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 18:18PHXEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
  14. P3 19:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Boarding5 min
  15. P3 19:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Fiddler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXCOL
33Shots on goal25
2.2Expected goals2.3
61Shot attempts44
27Faceoffs won30
5Power plays7
29Penalty minutes12
29Hits18
8Blocked shots17
4Giveaways10
14Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.3 xGPHX 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #796 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.

COL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).