Sat, Feb 13, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 19 | 119 | 442 |
| NYI | 19 | 317 | 17 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:31NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Rob Schremp · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:14TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Kurtis Foster · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:29TBLMike LundinAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 4:26NYIDoug WeightAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 12:27TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jeff Halpern · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 16:12NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Andy Sutton · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 17:12NYIRichard ParkAssists: Blake Comeau, Martin Biron · Snap, 0.30 xG3–4
- P3 2:57TBLSteve DownieAssists: Mattias Ohlund, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 17:38NYIRichard ParkGWGAssists: Doug Weight, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:44NYIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P1 1:26NYISean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:39TBLNate Thompson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:33NYISean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:15NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:15TBLNate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:15NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:52TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:36TBLMatt Smaby: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:49NYIJesse Joensuu: Interference2 min
- P3 4:39TBLNate Thompson: Interference2 min
- P3 11:38NYITrent Hunter: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).