Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

San Jose Sharks 1, Buffalo Sabres 3

Away

San Jose Sharks

1

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.

BUF winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS0801218128
BUF0931108328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:25BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:31BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Jochen Hecht, Mike Grier · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P2 17:23BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
  4. P3 5:28SJSKent HuskinsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 19:28SJSDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 6:51BUFMatt Ellis: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 10:21BUFThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 14:22BUFAdam Mair: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 2:29BUFTim Kennedy: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 2:29SJSTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 10:43SJSRyane Clowe: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 15:27BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Roy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSBUF
28Shots on goal28
1.2Expected goals1.4
51Shot attempts45
26Faceoffs won25
4Power plays2
6Penalty minutes10
15Hits21
9Blocked shots14
10Giveaways16
2Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 1.4 xGSJS 1.2 xG
00.511.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1036 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.

BUF winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).