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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Philadelphia Flyers 6, Montréal Canadiens 2

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

6

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI392819626
MTL07111110228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:37PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Oskars Bartulis, Scott Hartnell · Backhand, 0.38 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:10PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P1 15:50PHIJeff CarterGWGAssists: Matt Carle, Scott Hartnell · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
  4. P2 6:59MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P2 10:38PHIBlair BettsSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
  6. P2 19:54PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Chris Pronger · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–1
  7. P3 6:06MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Roman Hamrlik, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.56 xG5–2
  8. P3 10:53PHIDaniel BrièrePPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.33 xG6–2
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 0:04PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:04MTLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:35MTLGlen Metropolit: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:13PHIArron Asham: Holding2 min
  5. P2 0:16MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 0:16PHILukas Krajicek: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 5:40PHIArron Asham: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 10:10PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
  9. P2 15:29MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
  10. P2 19:07MTLJaroslav Spacek: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 1:36PHIChris Pronger: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 5:57PHIDarroll Powe: Boarding2 min · PPG
  13. P3 10:53MTLRyan O'Byrne: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
  14. P3 11:18PHIOskars Bartulis: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIMTL
26Shots on goal28
2.3Expected goals1.8
37Shot attempts55
33Faceoffs won39
3Power plays6
19Penalty minutes13
15Hits18
15Blocked shots8
5Giveaways11
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 1.8 xGPHI 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #717 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.84 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).