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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

New Jersey Devils 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5

Away

New Jersey Devils

2

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.

CAR winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD0807210225
CAR1829214531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:47CARZach BoychukAssists: Brandon Sutter, Brett Carson · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:34CARRay WhitneyPPAssists: Eric Staal · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:34CARRay WhitneyPPGWGAssists: Tim Gleason, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–3
  4. P3 3:27CARJussi JokinenAssists: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG0–4
  5. P3 7:26NJDZach PariseAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–4
  6. P3 17:02NJDBrian RolstonPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:31CARJussi JokinenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 6:23CARJoni Pitkanen: Interference2 min
  2. P1 8:23NJDZach Parise: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 10:24CARStephane Yelle: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 12:47CARAndrew Alberts: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 2:46NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 4:06NJDRob Niedermayer: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P2 5:46NJDMatthew Corrente: Elbowing2 min
  8. P2 11:06NJDPatrik Elias: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 6:25CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 6:25NJDMatthew Corrente: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 16:30CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDCAR
25Shots on goal31
2.7Expected goals3.9
47Shot attempts67
36Faceoffs won18
4Power plays5
15Penalty minutes13
19Hits20
20Blocked shots12
2Giveaways3
6Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.9 xGNJD 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #461 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.68 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.

CAR winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).