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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS11008119023339
FLA2801106032228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:13FLANick TarnaskyAssists: Victor Oreskovich, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:54BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:54FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P3 11:44BOSMark RecchiAssists: Dennis Wideman, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Michael Frolik stopped
  2. 2. BOS Marco Sturm stopped
  3. 3. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
  4. 4. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
  5. 5. FLA David Booth scored
  6. 6. BOS David Krejci scored
  7. 7. FLA Cory Stillman stopped
  8. 8. BOS Zdeno Chara stopped
  9. 9. FLA Steve Reinprecht stopped
  10. 10. BOS Blake Wheeler stopped
  11. 11. FLA Shawn Matthias stopped
  12. 12. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  13. 13. FLA Kamil Kreps scored
  14. 14. BOS Marc Savard scored
  15. 15. FLA Jeff Taffe stopped
  16. 16. BOS Mark Recchi scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 0:10BOSDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 18:27BOSShawn Thornton: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 15:06BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 15:06FLAVictor Oreskovich: Fighting5 min
  5. P3 9:44FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 12:02BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min
  7. OT 3:56BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. OT 4:02FLACory Stillman: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Reinprecht won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSFLA
39Shots on goal28
1.6Expected goals2.0
70Shot attempts52
32Faceoffs won35
1Power plays4
13Penalty minutes9
19Hits26
10Blocked shots23
5Giveaways8
2Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.0 xGBOS 1.6 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLABOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #606 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.63 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).