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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Washington Capitals 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)

Away

Washington Capitals

3

Final

Shootout

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
WSH1921407040334
STL17212012051436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:13STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Roman Polak, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:40WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Mike Green, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:52STLT.J. OshieAssists: Paul Kariya, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:26WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brendan Morrison, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:23STLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:43WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. STL Patrik Berglund stopped
  2. 2. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
  3. 3. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
  4. 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
  5. 5. STL Brad Boyes stopped
  6. 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
  7. 7. STL David Perron scored
  8. 8. WSH Brendan Morrison stopped
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 2:53STLBrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 3:04WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 5:52WSHQuintin Laing: Instigator2 min
  4. P1 5:52WSHQuintin Laing: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P1 5:52WSHQuintin Laing: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 5:52STLCam Janssen: Interference5 min · PPG
  7. P1 5:52STLCam Janssen: Game misconduct10 min
  8. P1 5:52STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  9. P1 5:52WSHQuintin Laing: Misconduct10 min
  10. P1 10:01STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
  11. P1 12:08WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
  12. P1 15:14STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
  13. P2 1:10WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
  14. P2 3:50STLBarret Jackman: High sticking2 min
  15. P2 13:41WSHTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
  16. P2 16:59STLPaul Kariya: Tripping2 min · PPG
  17. P3 7:10WSHKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
  18. P3 7:52WSHDavid Steckel: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against McClement
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHSTL
34Shots on goal36
2.7Expected goals2.7
62Shot attempts61
43Faceoffs won28
6Power plays6
31Penalty minutes30
19Hits22
15Blocked shots16
8Giveaways6
8Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.7 xGWSH 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #254 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.06 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).