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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Dallas Stars 3, Phoenix Coyotes 0

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.

PHX winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0421018322
PHX011017012040

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:54DALBrandon SegalGWGAssists: Trevor Daley, Krys Barch · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 12:38DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
  3. P3 13:00DALToby PetersenAssists: Brandon Segal · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:42PHXMartin Hanzal: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:42DALJames Neal: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:28DALNicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 12:50DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 12:50PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 15:11DALMarty Turco: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 15:16DALStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P1 16:56PHXEd Jovanovski: Holding the stick2 min
  9. P3 10:30PHXSami Lepisto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 14:01DALKrys Barch: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P3 14:01PHXPaul Bissonnette: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P3 14:01PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 14:01DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lombardi won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALPHX
22Shots on goal40
1.5Expected goals2.5
39Shot attempts73
33Faceoffs won30
2Power plays3
23Penalty minutes21
22Hits35
18Blocked shots13
2Giveaways5
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.5 xGDAL 1.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 7/100 · #1143 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.

PHX winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).