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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Atlanta Thrashers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (SO)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.

CHI winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ATL1831204030427
CHI39012114051540

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:41ATLJim SlaterAssists: Colby Armstrong, Pavel Kubina · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:31CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:44CHIKim JohnssonAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P1 13:14CHIMarian HossaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 4:09ATLEvander KaneAssists: Johnny Oduya, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P2 13:30ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Evander Kane, Arturs Kulda · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P2 18:39ATLToby EnstromPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Pavel Kubina · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–3
  8. P3 4:21CHIDave BollandAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. ATL Bryan Little stopped
  2. 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
  3. 3. ATL Nik Antropov stopped
  4. 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
  5. 5. ATL Niclas Bergfors stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 7:23ATLColby Armstrong: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:21CHIDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
  3. P1 17:51CHITroy Brouwer: Holding2 min
  4. P2 1:56ATLNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 5:27ATLTodd White: Holding2 min
  6. P2 9:37CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Interference2 min
  7. P2 18:22CHITomas Kopecky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:07CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 3:13ATLColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 3:13CHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 5:14ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 15:49ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
  13. OT 4:33ATLPavel Kubina: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Slater
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLCHI
27Shots on goal40
2.7Expected goals3.4
44Shot attempts74
34Faceoffs won25
5Power plays6
14Penalty minutes12
29Hits20
19Blocked shots10
6Giveaways7
9Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.4 xGATL 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #49 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.44 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.

CHI winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).