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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 13, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Anaheim Ducks 1, Calgary Flames 3

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.

CGY winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA16010011127
CGY113213012338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:25ANATroy BodieAssists: Scott Niedermayer, Kyle Chipchura · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:42CGYEric NystromAssists: Nigel Dawes, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:42CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross, Ian White · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:58CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 13:02ANAScott Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 4:32CGYDaymond Langkow: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 7:21CGYAdam Pardy: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 7:21ANATroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 8:17CGYDavid Moss: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 0:39ANATroy Bodie: Holding2 min
  7. P3 3:26ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 3:26CGYCurtis Glencross: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Backlund
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACGY
27Shots on goal38
2.1Expected goals3.5
46Shot attempts69
34Faceoffs won28
2Power plays2
14Penalty minutes14
14Hits10
12Blocked shots11
8Giveaways6
7Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.5 xGANA 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #993 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.96 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.

CGY winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).