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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 14, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Nashville Predators 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.

PIT winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NSH0421517002426
PIT1111817070333

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:43PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:34NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Shea Weber, Jason Arnott · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:09PITMatt CookeAssists: Jordan Staal, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:21NSHJordin TootooAssists: Marcel Goc · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:51PITBrooks OrpikAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 12:17NSHShea WeberAssists: Marcel Goc, J-P Dumont · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  2. 2. NSH Cal O'Reilly scored
  3. 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
  4. 4. NSH Martin Erat scored
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 14:21NSHRyan Jones: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 0:00NSHDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
  4. P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 4:23PITChris Kunitz: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P2 12:13PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 13:06PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 16:40NSHFrancis Bouillon: Interference2 min
  9. P3 6:26PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
  10. P3 8:23NSHRyan Suter: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 14:50PITBrooks Orpik: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 18:05PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
  13. OT 1:16NSHKevin Klein: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHPIT
26Shots on goal33
2.0Expected goals3.7
52Shot attempts61
24Faceoffs won33
7Power plays4
10Penalty minutes16
18Hits30
12Blocked shots12
3Giveaways8
5Takeaways0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.7 xGNSH 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #115 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.42 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.

PIT winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).