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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 14, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 6

Away

Vancouver Canucks

2

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.

MIN winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN01402213229
MIN19217315641

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:17MINGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Eric Belanger, Owen Nolan · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:22MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Derek Boogaard · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:18MINMarek ZidlickyGWGAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P3 4:02VANMason RaymondAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P3 7:06MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
  6. P3 8:04MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
  7. P3 9:39VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Ryan Kesler, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
  8. P3 18:20MINCam BarkerPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Slap, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 11:46VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 3:40VANKyle Wellwood: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 4:50VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 4:50MINAntti Miettinen: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 8:40VANAaron Rome: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 8:40VANAaron Rome: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 8:40MINJames Sheppard: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 10:48VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
  9. P2 14:13MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 1:13VANDarcy Hordichuk: Instigator2 min
  11. P3 1:13VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 1:13VANDarcy Hordichuk: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 1:13MINDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 7:00VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min · PPG
  15. P3 17:31VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANMIN
29Shots on goal41
1.6Expected goals4.4
43Shot attempts66
23Faceoffs won44
1Power plays7
36Penalty minutes14
24Hits31
12Blocked shots8
3Giveaways2
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 4.4 xGVAN 1.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #726 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.

MIN winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).