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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 14, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Ottawa Senators 4, New York Islanders 3

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Home

New York Islanders

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.

NYI winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT111014310435
NYI19217011337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:16OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Neil, Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:54NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Richard Park, Dustin Kohn · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:05NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Trent Hunter · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:57NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Doug Weight · Snap, 0.35 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:47OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Ryan Shannon, Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:13OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–3
  7. P3 10:46OTTMike FisherGWGAssists: Filip Kuba, Alex Kovalev · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 8:22OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 19:21OTTBrian Lee: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 6:03OTTRyan Shannon: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P2 10:12NYIBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 18:54OTTPeter Regin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 0:00OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 7:48NYIBruno Gervais: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTNYI
35Shots on goal37
4.1Expected goals5.3
61Shot attempts65
27Faceoffs won33
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
12Hits28
15Blocked shots17
12Giveaways15
19Takeaways24

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 5.3 xGOTT 4.1 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #216 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.90 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 8% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.

NYI winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).