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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 14, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Anaheim Ducks 7, Edmonton Oilers 3

Away

Anaheim Ducks

7

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.

EDM winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA219112415746
EDM1818113329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:47ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Brett Festerling · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:04EDMRyan PotulnyPPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
  3. P1 10:23ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:31ANAScott NiedermayerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P2 19:04EDMEthan MoreauSHAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Denis Grebeshkov · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
  6. P3 5:27ANARyan GetzlafPPGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.48 xG4–2
  7. P3 6:06ANAGeorge ParrosUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–2
  8. P3 6:49EDMLubomir VisnovskyAssists: Mike Comrie, Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.21 xG5–3
  9. P3 16:58ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Scott Niedermayer, Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.24 xG6–3
  10. P3 18:03ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Jason Blake, Ryan Whitney · Slap, 0.16 xG7–3
Penalties (24)
  1. P1 0:51EDMRobert Nilsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 3:29EDMLadislav Smid: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 3:29ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P1 4:08ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 4:25ANATodd Marchant: Tripping2 min
  6. P1 14:42EDMSteve Staios: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 18:59EDMSteve Staios: Holding2 min
  8. P2 3:59ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 3:59EDMGilbert Brule: Fighting5 min · PPG
  10. P2 4:57EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 5:48EDMJason Strudwick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  12. P2 9:10EDMRobert Nilsson: Abusive language2 min
  13. P2 11:27ANAJason Blake: Hooking2 min
  14. P2 17:28EDMGilbert Brule: Interference2 min
  15. P3 3:43EDMDustin Penner: Interference2 min · PPG
  16. P3 7:00ANATroy Bodie: Interference2 min
  17. P3 10:14ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
  18. P3 12:28EDMSteve Staios: Hooking2 min
  19. P3 15:24ANAJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 15:24EDMMike Comrie: Roughing2 min · PPG
  21. P3 15:24ANATroy Bodie: Misconduct10 min
  22. P3 15:24EDMEthan Moreau: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 15:43EDMLubomir Visnovsky: Slashing2 min
  24. P3 17:30EDMMike Comrie: Elbowing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Potulny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAEDM
46Shots on goal29
5.0Expected goals2.7
78Shot attempts50
30Faceoffs won34
11Power plays5
32Penalty minutes44
12Hits13
12Blocked shots20
15Giveaways20
12Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.7 xGANA 5.0 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #243 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.60 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.

EDM winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).