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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 1, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 2

Away

Detroit Red Wings

3

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.

COL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET21001119330
COL062909224

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:06DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:40DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
  3. P2 8:29COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Paul Stastny, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:14COLChris StewartAssists: Ruslan Salei, Matt Hendricks · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 10:57DETNicklas LidstromPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 11:08COLCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 16:53DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 3:25COLMatt Hendricks: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 5:39COLJohn-Michael Liles: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 17:19DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P3 9:59COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P3 12:51COLAdam Foote: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 12:51DETTomas Holmstrom: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCOL
30Shots on goal24
1.8Expected goals1.7
53Shot attempts45
24Faceoffs won25
4Power plays2
6Penalty minutes10
16Hits31
14Blocked shots16
5Giveaways9
11Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 1.7 xGDET 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #430 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.48 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.

COL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).