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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Montréal Canadiens 4, Boston Bruins 1

Away

Montréal Canadiens

4

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.

BOS winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL01008414432
BOS1701007124

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:11BOSMarco SturmPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Marc Savard · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–1
  2. P3 2:40MTLGlen MetropolitAssists: Tom Pyatt, Mathieu Darche · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P3 7:24MTLMaxim LapierreGWGAssists: Travis Moen, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–1
  4. P3 17:30MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Glen Metropolit, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
  5. P3 18:33MTLBenoit PouliotUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:31MTLDominic Moore: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 19:08BOSVladimir Sobotka: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 5:10MTLJaroslav Spacek: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 15:17MTLMaxim Lapierre: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 4:10BOSMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
  6. P3 18:59MTLDominic Moore: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Savard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLBOS
32Shots on goal24
3.0Expected goals2.6
52Shot attempts43
35Faceoffs won18
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
22Hits23
10Blocked shots16
5Giveaways6
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.6 xGMTL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #811 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.17 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.

BOS winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).