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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Vancouver Canucks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)

Away

Vancouver Canucks

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.

CBJ winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
VAN0122611112431
CBJ271160601330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:00CBJAndrew MurrayAssists: Jared Boll, Grant Clitsome · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:30CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Grant Clitsome, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 3:40VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Nolan Baumgartner · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:00VANPavol DemitraPPAssists: Sami Salo, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:21CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Raffi Torres, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 14:41VANKyle WellwoodAssists: Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
  7. OT 1:33VANChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 8:46CBJGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:30VANMikael Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 9:30CBJAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 19:38CBJJakub Voracek: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 19:38VANMikael Samuelsson: Cross checking2 min
  6. P1 19:38VANTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 5:09VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 9:55CBJDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P2 19:57VANShane O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 2:03CBJR.J. Umberger: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 2:15VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 4:35VANShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
  13. P3 10:26VANMason Raymond: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  14. P3 11:09CBJR.J. Umberger: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCBJ
31Shots on goal30
2.4Expected goals2.4
55Shot attempts47
41Faceoffs won26
4Power plays6
16Penalty minutes12
20Hits41
10Blocked shots14
1Giveaways5
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.4 xGVAN 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #154 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.09 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 14% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.

CBJ winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).