Tue, Mar 2, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 114 | 512 | 734 |
| TBL | 113 | 19 | 016 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:34PHIMike RichardsAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Chris Pronger · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:38TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Mattias Ohlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:26TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Steve Downie, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 4:58PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Mike Richards · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 0:17PHISimon GagnePPGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 4:34PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Simon Gagne, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 9:27PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Arron Asham · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 11:31PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Simon Gagne · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–2
- P3 14:27PHIJeff CarterSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG7–2
Penalties (20)
- P1 12:27PHISimon Gagne: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:32TBLMattias Ohlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:16TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:32PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P2 9:26PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P2 13:32TBLJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:47PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:10PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:11TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:46TBLMatt Smaby: Holding2 min
- P3 3:03TBLRyan Malone: Charging2 min
- P3 6:16TBLVincent Lecavalier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:02TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:02PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:02TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:58PHIArron Asham: Holding2 min
- P3 12:58PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:58TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:40TBLMattias Ohlund: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:38PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Betts
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).