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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Los Angeles Kings 5, Dallas Stars 1

Away

Los Angeles Kings

5

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.

DAL winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK183816522
DAL07011114132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:44LAKJarret StollAssists: Alex Frolov, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:15LAKAlex FrolovGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:33LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
  4. P2 17:46LAKRyan SmythPPAssists: Alex Frolov, Oscar Moller · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–0
  5. P3 5:19DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brad Richards, Marty Turco · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
  6. P3 19:53LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 8:37LAKBrad Richardson: Interference2 min
  2. P2 1:53DALJeff Woywitka: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 1:53LAKWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 1:53DALJeff Woywitka: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 1:53LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 3:34DALKrys Barch: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 3:34LAKRich Clune: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 15:56DALStephane Robidas: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  9. P2 18:15LAKMatt Greene: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 3:43LAKDustin Brown: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 9:30LAKRich Clune: Too many men on the ice2 min
  12. P3 18:41DALMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKDAL
22Shots on goal32
2.7Expected goals3.2
56Shot attempts81
26Faceoffs won28
2Power plays4
17Penalty minutes13
24Hits43
23Blocked shots17
7Giveaways8
3Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.2 xGLAK 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1044 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.65 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.

DAL winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).