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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

St. Louis Blues 5, Phoenix Coyotes 2

Away

St. Louis Blues

5

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

PHX winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL212310013535
PHX113013113239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:43PHXJoel PerraultAssists: Peter Mueller · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:53STLT.J. OshieAssists: David Backes, Paul Kariya · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:02STLJay McClementAssists: Alexander Steen, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:11STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
  5. P2 12:30STLDavid BackesPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Paul Kariya · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
  6. P2 19:04STLBrad BoyesAssists: Alexander Steen, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
  7. P3 8:15PHXMatthew LombardiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 1:18STLRoman Polak: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 4:21STLBrad Winchester: Charging2 min
  3. P1 16:02PHXRadim Vrbata: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 0:59PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 11:37PHXSami Lepisto: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 12:30PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 0:00STLBarret Jackman: Charging2 min
  8. P2 0:00STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 9:34PHXTaylor Pyatt: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 14:27STLJay McClement: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 17:27PHXJim Vandermeer: Interference2 min
  12. P3 18:22STLAndy McDonald: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Hanzal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLPHX
35Shots on goal39
3.1Expected goals3.2
53Shot attempts61
32Faceoffs won25
6Power plays6
12Penalty minutes12
17Hits21
10Blocked shots5
4Giveaways3
1Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.2 xGSTL 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #696 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

PHX winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).