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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

New Jersey Devils 4, San Jose Sharks 3

Away

New Jersey Devils

4

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.

SJS winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD0103916425
SJS080636320

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:13NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.58 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:48NJDMark FraserAssists: David Clarkson, Anssi Salmela · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 19:42NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Zach Parise, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
  4. P3 5:44NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.04 xG4–0
  5. P3 8:46SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Snap, 0.14 xG4–1
  6. P3 10:35SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Rob Blake · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
  7. P3 11:32SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Manny Malhotra · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 6:25SJSKent Huskins: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 19:36SJSManny Malhotra: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P3 0:29SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
  4. P3 9:38NJDDean McAmmond: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDSJS
25Shots on goal20
3.5Expected goals2.1
56Shot attempts47
15Faceoffs won33
3Power plays1
2Penalty minutes6
14Hits29
13Blocked shots16
6Giveaways14
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.1 xGNJD 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #191 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.

SJS winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).