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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 3, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Edmonton Oilers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 89% of the time.

CHI winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM062503214
CHI012221314547

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:26CHIMarian HossaAssists: Dave Bolland, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:31EDMRobert NilssonAssists: Sam Gagner, Dustin Penner · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:23EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:03CHIDave BollandAssists: Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P3 0:20CHINiklas HjalmarssonGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:24CHIDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
  7. P3 16:16CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:47CHIBen Eager: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 4:10EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 2:26CHIDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 2:26EDMJason Strudwick: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:41EDMDean Arsene: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 6:41CHIBen Eager: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 6:41EDMZack Stortini: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 9:29EDMTheo Peckham: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 19:57CHITomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 19:57EDMDean Arsene: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 3:37CHIBen Eager: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 3:37EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 6:18CHITomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 8:38EDMShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 11:05EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Potulny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCHI
14Shots on goal47
1.4Expected goals4.2
25Shot attempts80
22Faceoffs won31
2Power plays5
18Penalty minutes12
15Hits16
12Blocked shots9
3Giveaways4
7Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 4.2 xGEDM 1.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 58/100 · #524 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.57 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 89% of the time.

CHI winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).