Wed, Mar 3, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 4, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 27 | 13 | 421 |
| CGY | 09 | 013 | 07 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:56MINKyle BrodziakGWGAssists: Owen Nolan, Marek Zidlicky · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:12MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Antti Miettinen, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 14:05MINMikko KoivuAssists: Andrew Brunette, Cam Barker · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 12:20MINMartin HavlatAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Shane Hnidy · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
Penalties (2)
- P3 4:31MINGreg Zanon: Broken stick2 min
- P3 9:11MINDerek Boogaard: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Sheppard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).