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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 3, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 3

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.

ANA winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL0221429425
ANA11415115334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:11ANAJason BlakePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Steve Eminger · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:37ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Jason Blake, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:10COLChris StewartPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:42COLPeter MuellerPPAssists: John-Michael Liles · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:09COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–2
  6. P3 9:19COLTJ GaliardiGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
  7. P3 16:55ANAScott NiedermayerPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 4:15COLPaul Stastny: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P1 12:16ANABrett Festerling: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 14:41COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:39ANARyan Carter: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 17:39COLDarcy Tucker: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 8:55ANASheldon Brookbank: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 12:31COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 12:31ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min · PPG
  9. P2 12:31COLMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 12:31ANAKyle Chipchura: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P2 14:57ANAMike Brown: Charging2 min
  12. P2 18:28ANAJason Blake: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 4:05ANASteve Eminger: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 4:18COLPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
  15. P3 7:35ANASteve Eminger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  16. P3 11:23COLChris Durno: Holding the stick2 min
  17. P3 13:32COLRuslan Salei: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLANA
25Shots on goal34
2.4Expected goals3.6
34Shot attempts51
31Faceoffs won26
6Power plays6
21Penalty minutes21
21Hits15
3Blocked shots1
0Giveaways2
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.6 xGCOL 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #287 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.69 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.

ANA winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).