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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 4, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.

BOS winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TOR180618040226
BOS1911109021331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:36BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:27TORViktor StalbergAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Jamie Lundmark · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:24BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Marco Sturm, Mark Recchi · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:12TORTyler BozakAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Luca Caputi · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS David Krejci stopped
  2. 2. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
  3. 3. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
  4. 4. TOR Jamie Lundmark stopped
  5. 5. BOS Miroslav Satan scored
  6. 6. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:03TORViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min
  2. P1 11:10BOSDennis Seidenberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 13:45BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:45TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 13:46BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 13:46TORWayne Primeau: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 14:37TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
  8. P1 14:44BOSMarco Sturm: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 2:47BOSMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 8:17BOSDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
  11. P3 3:58BOSSteve Begin: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 3:58TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 3:58TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanson won the faceoff against Begin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORBOS
26Shots on goal31
1.8Expected goals2.4
42Shot attempts52
29Faceoffs won30
4Power plays3
18Penalty minutes20
23Hits24
9Blocked shots9
1Giveaways7
1Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.4 xGTOR 1.8 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #612 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.62 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.

BOS winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).