Thu, Mar 4, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 98% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 215 | 117 | 119 | 14 | 555 |
| NYR | 28 | 27 | 01 | 00 | 416 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Sean Avery, Wade Redden · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:03PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–1
- P1 9:58PITJordan StaalUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–1
- P1 14:39NYRChris DruryPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 2:03NYRMichal RozsivalAssists: Vinny Prospal, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 12:49NYRBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Michal Rozsival, Matt Gilroy · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 14:23PITMike RuppAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 11:59PITAlex GoligoskiAssists: Chris Kunitz, Ruslan Fedotenko · Tip-in, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 3:42PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:10NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 4:10NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:10PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:23NYRMichal Rozsival: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:58NYRBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:58PITMatt Cooke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:23PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00NYRRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:59PITSidney Crosby: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:12PITMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:28PITMatt Cooke: Clipping2 min
- OT 1:45NYRWade Redden: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Christensen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 98% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).