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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 4, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Ottawa Senators 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.

CAR winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0100719126
CAR291913421

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:18CARTom KostopoulosAssists: Zach Boychuk · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:23CARRod Brind'AmourGWGAssists: Zach Boychuk, Brett Carson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:50CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
  4. P3 11:55OTTMatt CullenAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:12CARBrandon SutterENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 10:19CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 5:50CARTom Kostopoulos: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 9:12OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  4. P3 6:47OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
  5. P3 18:43OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTCAR
26Shots on goal21
2.9Expected goals3.5
63Shot attempts38
26Faceoffs won18
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
34Hits34
9Blocked shots19
2Giveaways7
9Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.5 xGOTT 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CAROTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #945 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.55 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.

CAR winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).