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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 4, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

New York Islanders 3, Atlanta Thrashers 6

Away

New York Islanders

3

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.

ATL winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI12101026337
ATL4102903622

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:04ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Bryan Little, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:51ATLNik AntropovAssists: Bryan Little, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P1 9:16ATLClarke MacArthurAssists: Maxim Afinogenov · Snap, 0.24 xG0–3
  4. P1 14:25ATLMaxim AfinogenovGWGAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P1 19:43NYIMark StreitPPAssists: Doug Weight, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P2 10:05ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
  7. P2 15:53ATLEvgeny ArtyukhinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–6
  8. P3 11:38NYIRob SchrempPPAssists: Matt Moulson, John Tavares · Snap, 0.27 xG2–6
  9. P3 12:48NYITim JackmanAssists: Dustin Kohn, Rob Schremp · Snap, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 10:01ATLChristoph Schubert: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 18:26ATLColby Armstrong: Charging2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:54ATLJohnny Oduya: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P2 7:23NYITim Jackman: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 9:51NYIBruno Gervais: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 11:32ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 4:01NYIFreddy Meyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 9:54ATLChristoph Schubert: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Nielsen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIATL
37Shots on goal22
3.2Expected goals2.1
55Shot attempts40
19Faceoffs won31
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
11Hits18
9Blocked shots12
7Giveaways7
12Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.1 xGNYI 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #465 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.

ATL winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).