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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 4, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Los Angeles Kings 2, Nashville Predators 4

Away

Los Angeles Kings

2

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

NSH winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK1100418222
NSH17115210432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:54LAKAlex FrolovAssists: Jarret Stoll · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:32NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Steve Sullivan, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:09NSHJason ArnottPPAssists: Martin Erat, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P3 2:30NSHMarcel GocGWGAssists: Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
  5. P3 6:40LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Ryan Smyth, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:06NSHJerred SmithsonENAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 8:56LAKMatt Greene: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 11:23LAKSean O'Donnell: Interference2 min
  3. P2 0:34LAKRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 11:11LAKWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 16:59NSHDenis Grebeshkov: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 19:10LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 4:47NSHJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 4:47LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 6:18NSHRyan Suter: Interference2 min
  10. P3 9:18NSHJordin Tootoo: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 9:18LAKRandy Jones: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 10:33NSHMartin Erat: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKNSH
22Shots on goal32
1.6Expected goals4.4
35Shot attempts59
25Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
14Penalty minutes10
14Hits12
11Blocked shots6
9Giveaways10
7Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 4.4 xGLAK 1.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #656 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

NSH winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).