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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 4, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

St. Louis Blues 6, Dallas Stars 1

Away

St. Louis Blues

6

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.

DAL winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL31016211627
DAL11109010130

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:28STLPaul KariyaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:16DALLoui ErikssonAssists: James Neal, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.36 xG1–1
  3. P1 17:28STLBrad BoyesGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P1 17:45STLPaul KariyaAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P2 1:50STLAlexander SteenAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
  6. P3 3:55STLPatrik BerglundAssists: David Perron, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–1
  7. P3 13:58STLT.J. OshieAssists: Paul Kariya, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 3:39DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 7:57DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:57STLDJ King: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 12:18DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 12:18STLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 4:57STLDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P2 7:00STLBarret Jackman: Holding2 min
  8. P2 11:13STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
  9. P2 12:17DALJames Neal: Interference2 min
  10. P3 4:54DALBrad Richards: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 7:00DALKarlis Skrastins: Interference2 min
  12. P3 15:01STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLDAL
27Shots on goal30
2.2Expected goals2.9
62Shot attempts57
29Faceoffs won31
4Power plays4
18Penalty minutes18
25Hits42
15Blocked shots19
7Giveaways11
8Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.9 xGSTL 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #882 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.

DAL winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).