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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 4, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Colorado Avalanche 1, Phoenix Coyotes 3

Away

Colorado Avalanche

1

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.

PHX winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL091906124
PHX11305111329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:13PHXLee StempniakAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:58COLJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Peter Mueller, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 19:37PHXWojtek WolskiGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Sami Lepisto · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 2:10COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 9:40PHXPetteri Nokelainen: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 14:30COLPeter Mueller: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 16:00PHXLee Stempniak: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  5. P3 10:26PHXJim Vandermeer: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 10:26COLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 10:29PHXWojtek Wolski: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lombardi won the faceoff against O'Reilly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLPHX
24Shots on goal29
2.0Expected goals1.6
45Shot attempts53
23Faceoffs won22
3Power plays2
6Penalty minutes8
27Hits31
15Blocked shots12
1Giveaways3
4Takeaways0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 1.6 xGCOL 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #848 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.16 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.

PHX winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).