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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 4, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Montréal Canadiens 2, San Jose Sharks 3

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.

SJS winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL11118011230
SJS015114211340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:20MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:53SJSPatrick MarleauSHAssists: Rob Blake, Scott Nichol · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:06MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Andrei Markov · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–1
  4. P3 12:32SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:05SJSManny MalhotraGWGAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Kent Huskins · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 14:27MTLHal Gill: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 0:08SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 2:36SJSRob Blake: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 2:36MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 3:26SJSRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 8:53MTLAndrei Markov: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 12:04MTLBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 12:04SJSScott Nichol: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 13:00MTLTomas Plekanec: Clipping2 min
  10. P2 18:07SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 1:56SJSJay Leach: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 1:56MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 4:45SJSManny Malhotra: Boarding2 min
  14. P3 11:18MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLSJS
30Shots on goal40
1.6Expected goals2.9
50Shot attempts85
19Faceoffs won42
4Power plays4
14Penalty minutes14
20Hits33
26Blocked shots10
13Giveaways13
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.9 xGMTL 1.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #411 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.88 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.

SJS winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).