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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 5, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Minnesota Wild 1, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.

EDM winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MIN0611007062129
EDM1508010003223

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:50EDMMike ComrieAssists: Zack Stortini, Ryan Potulny · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:34MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Greg Zanon · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
  2. 2. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
  3. 3. EDM Ryan Potulny scored
  4. 4. MIN Owen Nolan stopped
  5. 5. EDM Shawn Horcoff stopped
  6. 6. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
  7. 7. EDM Gilbert Brule scored
  8. 8. MIN Marek Zidlicky scored
  9. 9. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
  10. 10. MIN Martin Havlat stopped
  11. 11. EDM Mike Comrie scored
  12. 12. MIN Guillaume Latendresse stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:29MINDerek Boogaard: Kneeing2 min
  2. P1 10:15EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
  3. P1 13:58EDMRyan Jones: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 1:53EDMZack Stortini: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 1:53MINOwen Nolan: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 10:36MINShane Hnidy: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 10:36EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 14:01MINOwen Nolan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. OT 4:02EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINEDM
29Shots on goal23
3.0Expected goals2.2
57Shot attempts57
38Faceoffs won26
3Power plays2
8Penalty minutes10
17Hits13
14Blocked shots16
14Giveaways18
10Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.2 xGMIN 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #893 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.13 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.

EDM winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).