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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Boston Bruins 3, New York Islanders 2

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Home

New York Islanders

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.

NYI winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS11621206334
NYI04122113239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:26BOSMilan LucicAssists: Shawn Thornton, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:18NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Mark Streit, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:04BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Miroslav Satan, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:20BOSMarc SavardPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–1
  5. P3 5:43NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 1:27NYIJon Sim: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 0:50BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 8:26NYIDylan Reese: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 16:06BOSMichael Ryder: Checking from behind5 min
  5. P2 16:06BOSMichael Ryder: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Nielsen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSNYI
34Shots on goal39
2.8Expected goals4.6
60Shot attempts67
30Faceoffs won16
2Power plays2
17Penalty minutes4
30Hits25
16Blocked shots15
11Giveaways12
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 4.6 xGBOS 2.8 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #743 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.

NYI winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).