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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TOR05113011022231
OTT1100903010123

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:03OTTChris NeilPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.56 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:50TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. OTT Alex Kovalev stopped
  2. 2. TOR Phil Kessel scored
  3. 3. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
  4. 4. TOR Nikolay Kulemin scored
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 1:32TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:08TORViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 14:08OTTJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 15:26TORJamie Lundmark: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P1 15:26OTTAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 15:26TORJamie Lundmark: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 18:05OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 18:05TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 18:05TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  10. P1 18:05OTTShean Donovan: Fighting5 min
  11. P1 18:05TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 11:16OTTJason Spezza: Slashing2 min
  13. P2 13:05OTTPascal Leclaire: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  14. P3 3:14OTTJarkko Ruutu: Holding2 min
  15. P3 6:16OTTRyan Shannon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  16. P3 11:36TORWayne Primeau: Slashing2 min
  17. P3 12:35OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
  18. P3 14:11OTTChris Phillips: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TOROTT
31Shots on goal23
2.2Expected goals2.5
56Shot attempts49
28Faceoffs won31
6Power plays4
22Penalty minutes26
20Hits26
13Blocked shots17
6Giveaways17
10Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.5 xGTOR 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #671 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.45 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).