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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Carolina Hurricanes 1, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.

FLA winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR06010116132
FLA2150629430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:58FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:09FLAKamil KrepsGWGAssists: Nick Tarnasky · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P3 7:58CARJussi JokinenAssists: Brandon Sutter, Alexandre Picard · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:30FLACory StillmanAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Bryan McCabe · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:54FLAKamil KrepsENAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:15CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:15FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:53CARTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 14:25FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 14:25CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 15:32FLADavid Booth: Slashing2 min
  7. P1 16:12CARErik Cole: Slashing2 min
  8. P1 17:14FLAKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 19:07CARRay Whitney: Interference2 min
  10. P2 4:09FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 10:33FLAMichael Frolik: Too many men on the ice2 min
  12. P2 10:51FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 18:35FLAShawn Matthias: Too many men on the ice2 min
  14. P3 3:21FLAKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 17:01CARTuomo Ruutu: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARFLA
32Shots on goal30
2.4Expected goals3.0
68Shot attempts42
25Faceoffs won36
7Power plays3
18Penalty minutes24
23Hits24
3Blocked shots19
3Giveaways8
0Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.0 xGCAR 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLACAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 26/100 · #911 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.85 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.

FLA winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).