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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.

TBL winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL11011308231
TBL31411125630

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:22ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Bryan Little, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:47TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:06TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P1 17:00TBLPaul SzczechuraGWGAssists: Brandon Bochenski, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P2 13:37ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Evgeny Artyukhin, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P2 16:36TBLTeddy PurcellUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–4
  7. P3 4:01TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
  8. P3 16:19TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Paul Szczechura, Brandon Bochenski · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–6
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 5:33TBLPaul Szczechura: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:37ATLJohnny Oduya: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 13:38ATLNik Antropov: Delaying game2 min
  4. P1 17:31ATLBryan Little: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 2:45TBLMark Parrish: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 6:24TBLAndrej Meszaros: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 13:57TBLTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 16:36ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 4:37TBLMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 12:14TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 12:14TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 12:14TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 12:14ATLPavel Kubina: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 12:14ATLChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 18:05TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 18:05ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLTBL
31Shots on goal30
2.0Expected goals3.5
56Shot attempts49
27Faceoffs won33
5Power plays4
17Penalty minutes29
19Hits18
10Blocked shots16
8Giveaways10
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.5 xGATL 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #561 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.

TBL winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).