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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Anaheim Ducks 0, Phoenix Coyotes 4

Away

Anaheim Ducks

0

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.

PHX winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA03019010032
PHX11027113430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:14PHXPetr PruchaPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:52PHXWojtek WolskiAssists: Matthew Lombardi · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:39PHXVernon FiddlerAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
  4. P3 16:13PHXKeith YandleUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:36PHXPetteri Nokelainen: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 5:29ANADan Sexton: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 8:01PHXTaylor Pyatt: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 10:57ANATroy Bodie: Interference2 min
  5. P1 17:47ANABobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  6. P2 3:19PHXTaylor Pyatt: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 7:01PHXSami Lepisto: Interference2 min
  8. P2 13:42ANAMatt Beleskey: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 14:11PHXMatthew Lombardi: Holding2 min
  10. P3 1:40PHXSami Lepisto: Holding2 min
  11. P3 3:50ANAKyle Chipchura: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 3:50PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 3:50PHXVernon Fiddler: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 3:50ANASheldon Brookbank: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 12:14PHXSami Lepisto: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 16:13PHXDerek Morris: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 16:13ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAPHX
32Shots on goal30
2.8Expected goals3.1
57Shot attempts52
24Faceoffs won29
7Power plays4
25Penalty minutes31
24Hits12
6Blocked shots11
3Giveaways3
2Takeaways0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.1 xGANA 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1125 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.

PHX winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).