Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 7

Away

St. Louis Blues

3

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.

COL winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL112116114342
COL21241516733

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:35STLDavid PerronAssists: Eric Brewer, Patrik Berglund · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:46COLMilan HejdukAssists: Peter Mueller, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:58COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
  4. P2 0:54COLChris StewartAssists: TJ Galiardi, Ryan Wilson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 1:18COLMilan HejdukGWGAssists: Ryan Wilson, Peter Mueller · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
  6. P2 10:07COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–5
  7. P2 10:38STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jay McClement, Brad Boyes · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–5
  8. P2 19:03COLChris StewartUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–6
  9. P3 4:23STLAlexander SteenAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Mike Weaver · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–6
  10. P3 18:42COLMatt HendricksENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Stephane Yelle · Backhand, 0.73 xG3–7
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:31COLMatt Hendricks: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 10:06STLB.J. Crombeen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 10:06COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P1 10:10COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 12:13COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 12:13STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 13:06STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
  8. P2 2:26STLBrad Winchester: Interference2 min
  9. P2 3:15COLJohn-Michael Liles: Interference2 min
  10. P2 19:03STLErik Johnson: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
  11. P3 4:44STLT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 10:33COLPeter Mueller: Holding2 min
  13. P3 13:08STLJay McClement: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCOL
42Shots on goal33
3.6Expected goals4.8
73Shot attempts51
35Faceoffs won25
4Power plays4
15Penalty minutes15
22Hits18
7Blocked shots13
6Giveaways11
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 4.8 xGSTL 3.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #584 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.96 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.

COL winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).