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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Columbus Blue Jackets 1, San Jose Sharks 2

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.

SJS winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ051809122
SJS013016215244

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:00CBJAndrew MurrayAssists: R.J. Umberger, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P3 7:53SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.23 xG1–1
  3. P3 15:20SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:54CBJAndrew Murray: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 2:09SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 4:15SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 4:15CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 14:57SJSBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 14:57SJSBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 9:54CBJNathan Paetsch: Holding2 min
  8. P2 18:20CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 7:35CBJAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 10:07CBJMike Commodore: Interference2 min
  11. P3 11:38CBJJan Hejda: Delaying game2 min
  12. P3 15:54CBJJan Hejda: Holding2 min
  13. P3 16:02SJSDany Heatley: Holding2 min
  14. P3 19:10CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJSJS
22Shots on goal44
2.0Expected goals4.2
33Shot attempts83
28Faceoffs won25
4Power plays8
21Penalty minutes13
32Hits36
17Blocked shots5
11Giveaways8
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 4.2 xGCBJ 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #676 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.44 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.

SJS winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).