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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Boston Bruins 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2

Away

Boston Bruins

1

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.

PIT winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS0318011122
PIT010112111233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:12BOSBlake WheelerPPAssists: Marco Sturm, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:57PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Mike Rupp · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:27PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 5:29PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:05PITMark Eaton: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 18:42PITRuslan Fedotenko: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 2:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 3:43BOSMichael Ryder: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 9:59BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 9:59PITRuslan Fedotenko: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSPIT
22Shots on goal33
2.0Expected goals2.6
43Shot attempts50
35Faceoffs won27
4Power plays1
4Penalty minutes10
22Hits30
12Blocked shots10
4Giveaways9
0Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.6 xGBOS 2.0 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #956 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.

PIT winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).