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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Vancouver Canucks 4, Nashville Predators 2

Away

Vancouver Canucks

4

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.

NSH winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN11007311428
NSH110113012235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:10VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Ryan Kesler, Pavol Demitra · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:44NSHJason ArnottAssists: Ryan Suter, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:25NSHJordin TootooAssists: Colin Wilson, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
  4. P3 9:59VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 14:18VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:56VANHenrik SedinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 3:20NSHDan Hamhuis: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 3:20VANAlexandre Burrows: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:29NSHDenis Grebeshkov: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 12:43VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 17:07VANShane O'Brien: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANNSH
28Shots on goal35
2.6Expected goals3.0
52Shot attempts61
25Faceoffs won20
1Power plays2
9Penalty minutes7
20Hits22
14Blocked shots13
10Giveaways16
10Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.0 xGVAN 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #620 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.51 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.

NSH winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).