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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Calgary Flames 5, Minnesota Wild 2

Away

Calgary Flames

5

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.

MIN winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY2111825524
MIN01021306229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:19CGYRene BourqueAssists: Steve Staios, Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 2:44CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Jarome Iginla, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 9:53MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Martin Havlat, Shane Hnidy · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:11CGYJarome IginlaPPGWGAssists: Rene Bourque, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
  5. P2 15:32MINGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Brent Burns, Niklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 13:45CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
  7. P3 18:27CGYJarome IginlaENAssists: Rene Bourque, Ian White · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 11:15MINAntti Miettinen: Interference2 min
  2. P1 13:06CGYAles Kotalik: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 19:13MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 2:39CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 11:48MINBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  6. P2 14:29CGYRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P3 6:59CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 11:46MINMikko Koivu: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  9. P3 13:40MINOwen Nolan: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Brodziak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYMIN
24Shots on goal29
2.1Expected goals1.6
44Shot attempts58
24Faceoffs won36
5Power plays4
8Penalty minutes10
32Hits25
18Blocked shots7
2Giveaways5
1Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 1.6 xGCGY 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #550 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.38 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.

MIN winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).