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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Detroit Red Wings 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4

Away

Detroit Red Wings

5

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.

CHI winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET0951006525
CHI21007215432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:24CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:37CHIAndrew LaddUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:12DETBrian RafalskiPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:40DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Todd Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 9:45DETJason WilliamsAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P2 10:27DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
  7. P2 19:57DETPavel DatsyukGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–2
  8. P3 1:59CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Kim Johnsson, John Madden · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
  9. P3 12:06CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Duncan Keith, John Madden · Deflected, 0.01 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 0:53DETTomas Holmstrom: Holding2 min
  2. P2 3:18CHIDave Bolland: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:18DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 3:42CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
  5. P3 8:16CHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 8:16DETBrian Rafalski: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 12:56DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCHI
25Shots on goal32
1.9Expected goals2.2
44Shot attempts58
29Faceoffs won28
1Power plays2
8Penalty minutes6
24Hits30
15Blocked shots14
4Giveaways7
13Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.2 xGDET 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #174 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 14% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.

CHI winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).