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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

New Jersey Devils 0, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

New Jersey Devils

0

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.

EDM winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD060907022
EDM03116116235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:23EDMGilbert BruleGWGAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P3 8:28EDMMarc-Antoine PouliotAssists: Robert Nilsson, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 9:35EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 2:09NJDZach Parise: Holding2 min
  3. P2 8:26NJDDainius Zubrus: Slashing2 min
  4. P3 9:25EDMRyan Whitney: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 9:25NJDAndrew Peters: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 9:25NJDAndrew Peters: Misconduct10 min
  7. P3 17:29NJDDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDEDM
22Shots on goal35
1.6Expected goals3.5
56Shot attempts56
29Faceoffs won24
1Power plays3
18Penalty minutes4
18Hits14
11Blocked shots18
23Giveaways18
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.5 xGNJD 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 0/100 · #1222 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.

EDM winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).