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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Montréal Canadiens 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Anaheim Ducks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.

ANA winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL01519214052443
ANA3110708061332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:54ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Aaron Ward · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:54ANALubomir VisnovskyPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:07ANAScott NiedermayerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
  4. P2 7:48MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:10MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:49MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. ANA Corey Perry stopped
  2. 2. MTL Andrei Markov stopped
  3. 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
  4. 4. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
  5. 5. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
  6. 6. MTL Brian Gionta scored
  7. 7. ANA James Wisniewski stopped
  8. 8. MTL Tomas Plekanec scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 4:24ANAScott Niedermayer: Interference2 min
  2. P1 6:38ANASteve Eminger: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 11:11MTLTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P3 3:46ANAJason Blake: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 19:49ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 19:49MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 19:49ANAJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 19:49MTLBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
  9. OT 5:00MTLBrian Gionta: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLANA
43Shots on goal32
3.9Expected goals3.6
67Shot attempts52
33Faceoffs won27
3Power plays1
8Penalty minutes10
26Hits25
9Blocked shots11
6Giveaways9
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.6 xGMTL 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANAMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #155 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.73 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.

ANA winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).