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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 8, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Dallas Stars 4, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.

WSH winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL05011310002426
WSH11912317031352

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:51WSHTom PotiAssists: David Steckel, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:37WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P3 1:33DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:46DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:53DALJames NealAssists: Jere Lehtinen, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
  6. P3 16:44WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
  2. 2. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
  3. 3. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
  4. 4. DAL Brad Richards scored
  5. 5. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
  6. 6. DAL James Neal stopped
  7. 7. WSH Brooks Laich stopped
  8. 8. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
  9. 9. WSH Brendan Morrison stopped
  10. 10. DAL Loui Eriksson scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 12:17DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 12:52DALStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:09DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
  4. P3 1:02WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 3:45WSHMatt Bradley: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Backstrom
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALWSH
26Shots on goal52
1.7Expected goals3.2
63Shot attempts96
31Faceoffs won38
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
20Hits21
27Blocked shots23
6Giveaways15
9Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.2 xGDAL 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #157 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.14 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.

WSH winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).