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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 8, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Los Angeles Kings 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.

LAK winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ030206011
LAK41421209635

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:49LAKWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Freddy Modin, Rob Scuderi · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:24LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Michal Handzus, Alex Frolov · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P1 14:38LAKMichal HandzusPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
  4. P1 15:19LAKAlex FrolovPPAssists: Randy Jones, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
  5. P2 4:20LAKFreddy ModinPPAssists: Alex Frolov, Randy Jones · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–5
  6. P2 9:46LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Jarret Stoll, Alex Frolov · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–6
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 8:53CBJFedor Tyutin: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 11:43CBJMike Commodore: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 11:43LAKWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 14:01CBJRick Nash: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  5. P1 16:26CBJMike Blunden: Checking from behind5 min
  6. P1 16:26CBJMike Blunden: Game misconduct10 min
  7. P2 2:41CBJDerek Dorsett: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 11:56CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 3:23LAKAlex Frolov: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 5:23LAKJarret Stoll: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 14:05LAKFreddy Modin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  12. P3 16:54LAKJeff Halpern: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJLAK
11Shots on goal35
1.9Expected goals4.0
33Shot attempts59
19Faceoffs won34
4Power plays6
27Penalty minutes10
28Hits19
13Blocked shots7
12Giveaways12
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 4.0 xGCBJ 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1202 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.48 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.

LAK winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).