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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 9, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Boston Bruins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.

TOR winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS1101101702329
TOR052811116430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:47BOSMark RecchiAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:34TORWayne PrimeauAssists: Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:49BOSMarco SturmPPAssists: Mark Recchi, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:38TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Phil Kessel, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P3 3:07BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Mark Recchi, Marco Sturm · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
  6. P3 7:13TORLuca CaputiAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Luke Schenn · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
  7. OT 4:10TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 4:23BOSBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 5:33BOSMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 16:14BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:01TORJeff Finger: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 13:36TORLuke Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSTOR
29Shots on goal30
2.6Expected goals3.2
61Shot attempts69
33Faceoffs won21
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
22Hits33
22Blocked shots19
12Giveaways9
9Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.2 xGBOS 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #176 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.18 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.

TOR winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).